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        <title>Alex Burns</title>
        <link>http://alexburns.net/</link>
        <description>The personal site of Australian research analyst &amp; strategist Alex Burns</description>
        <language>en-US</language>
        <copyright>Copyright 2009</copyright>
        <lastBuildDate>Mon, 05 Jan 2009 21:36:29 +1100</lastBuildDate>
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        <item>
            <title>Frost/Nixon (2008) &amp; Negotiation Games</title>
            <description><![CDATA[Ron Howard's film adaptation of <a href="http://www.frostnixon.net/"><i>Frost/Nixon</i></a> (2008) adopts a thriller format in contrast with the Melbourne Theatre Company's <a href="http://www.australianstage.com.au/reviews/melbourne/frost/nixon--melbourne-theatre-company-1504.html">stage production</a> which I saw several months ago.&nbsp; Salvatore Totino's cinematography turns <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Frost_%28broadcaster%29">David Frost</a>'s interview into a claustrophobic <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tit_for_tat">tit for tat</a> whilst editors Daniel P. Hanley and Mike Hill linger on the emotional aftermath of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Nixon">Richard Nixon</a>'s elicited, emotional self-disclosure.<br /><br />For me the MTC's version suffered from a first act which established the interview's circumstances, obscured the <a href="http://www.it-can.ca/pdf/Negotiating_the_Best_Deal.pdf">dual track negotiations</a> between Frost and Nixon's advisers, and veered into comedy, before ratcheting up the second act.&nbsp; Howard avoids this dilemma through taut pacing that has a semi-documentary feel heightened when the characters deliver their monologues straight to the camera.<br /><br />The cast needs to be stellar for this ensemble film and it delivers.&nbsp; Frank Langella's Nixon is a self-tortured leader with <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Feet-Clay-Anthony-Storr/dp/0684834952">feet of clay</a>; I have to now revisit Anthony Hopkins' portrayal in Oliver Stone's <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wall_Street_%28film%29"><i>Nixon</i></a> (1995) for a comparison.&nbsp; Michael Sheen's Frost adopts a chutzpah mask which hides a risk-taking gambit to avoid career demise and the compromises made to financiers.&nbsp; Kevin Bacon's Jack Brennan is prepared to take the flak for Nixon.&nbsp; Sam Rockwell's James Reston Jr. evokes how research can become an all-consuming quest when your beliefs and passions are on the line, deftly counterpointed by Oliver Platt's Bob Zelnick who zigs and zags between self-depracating humour and conscientious objector angst.&nbsp; Matthew Macfayden's John Birt updates the role he played in <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/spooks/"><i>Spooks</i></a> (aka <i>MI5</i>) as a nuanced political operator who must counterbalance Frost's chutzpah and the resistance it creates for Reston Jr. and Zelnick with keeping the team together, and getting the interview planning, negotiations and logistics done.&nbsp; Rebecca Hall's Caroline Cushing and Toby Jones' Swifty Lazar provide comic relief from the tension and function to advance the film's plot points.&nbsp; Langella gets the spotlight for his Nixon portrayal yet the rest of the cast are vital because the plot needs everyone to be a coherent whole.<br /><br />Playwright and scriptwriter <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Morgan">Peter Morgan</a>'s previous films have explored weighty themes: self-willed blindness to the dark side of charismatic leadership in <a href="http://www.foxsearchlight.com/lastkingofscotland/"><i>The Last King of Scotland</i></a> (2006) and leadership judgment during crisis-driven events in <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0436697/"><i>The Queen</i></a> (2006).&nbsp; Set after Watergate and Nixon's presidential pardon, <i>Frost/Nixon</i> explores the commitment costs for a research group that sets out to achieve public justice and the ploys in a complex multi-party negotiation.&nbsp; There's far more beyond the heart-to-heart phone call between Nixon and Frost, and Nixon's final self-disclosure, just as there was more to Oliver Stone's <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wall_Street_%28film%29"><i>Wall Street</i></a> (1987) than Gordon Gecko's 'greed is good' sound-bite.&nbsp; All sides use psychological tactics to gain momentary bargaining advantages and to leverage power imbalances, from Swifty Lazar's late night reply on Frost's opening bid to Birt, Reston Jr. and Brennan's interruptions of the interview taping at strategic points that are beneficial to their teams.&nbsp; Frost opts to 'lure the tiger from the mountain' (<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thirty-Six_Strategies"><i>36 Strategies</i></a>) for Nixon to self-disclose, enraging Reston Jr. and Zelnick who want a front-on attack about Watergate and the Vietnam War.&nbsp; Nixon uses <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sleight_of_mouth">sleight of mouth</a> patterns to interrupt, stall and throw Frost off guard.&nbsp; Birt is caught in a position akin to a consultant or line manager: responsible for logistics and having to persuade all parties to move forward.&nbsp; Anyone who has had to raise money against the odds for a project will wince with familiarity at Frost's desparate meetings with television network chiefs and advertising agencies.&nbsp; It's this <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pointillism">pointillism</a> which makes <i>Frost/Nixon</i> even richer than the interview's climatic revelations and why the film will be perfect for an MBA class on mergers and acquisitions, negotiation and game theory.<br /><br />Now all I need to see are the <a href="http://www.frostnixon.com/">Frost/Nixon original interviews</a> . . .<br /> ]]></description>
            <link>http://alexburns.net/2009/01/frostnixon-2008.html</link>
            <guid>http://alexburns.net/2009/01/frostnixon-2008.html</guid>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">Reviews</category>
            
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">36 Strategies</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Alex Burns</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Anthony Hopkins</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">bargaining</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Bob Zelnick</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Caroline Cushing</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Daniel P. Hanley</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">David Frost</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">dual track negotiations</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">feet of clay</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Frank Langella</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Frost/Nixon</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">game theory</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Jack Brennan</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">James Reston Jr.</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">John Birt</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Kevin Bacon</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Matthew Macfayden</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Melbourne Theatre Company</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Michael Sheen</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Mike Hill</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">MTC</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">negotiation</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Nixon</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Oliver Platt</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Oliver Stone</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Peter Morgan</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">pointillism</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">power imbalances</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Richard Nixon</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Salvatore Totino</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Sam Rockwell</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">sleight of mouth</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Swifty Lazar</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">The Last King of Scotland</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">The Queen</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">tit for tat</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Toby Jones</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Wall Street</category>
            
            <pubDate>Mon, 05 Jan 2009 21:36:29 +1100</pubDate>
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            <title>Trading Chaos</title>
            <description><![CDATA[Williams, Bill &amp; Justine Gregory-Williams.&nbsp; <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Trading-Chaos-Technical-Techniques-Marketplace/dp/0471463086/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1?ie=UTF8&amp;s=books&amp;qid=1231036587&amp;sr=8-1"><i>Trading Chaos: Maximise Profits With Proven Technical Techniques</i></a> (2nd ed.), John Wiley &amp; Sons, New York, 2004.<br /><br />The father-daughter authors summarise a personal methodology based primarily on: (1) the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technical_analysis">technical analysis</a> of oscillations in market securities; and (2) the opportunities for day traders and swing traders to <i>appropriate value</i> from institutional funds through 'countertrend' signals which occur in commodities futures and currency/foreign exchange (forex) markets.&nbsp; The first (1995) and second (2004) editions coincided with the IT and subprime bubbles which created day trading subcultures and market volatility, so it would be interesting to see how the authors have fared during the 2007-08 global financial crisis.<br /><br />The book's first half synthesises various ideas on formulating a trading plan and the psychology of market trading.&nbsp; The ideas include a social constructionist view of money as a holder of value (<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Searle">John Searle</a>); crowd psychology and rational herds in markets (<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gustave_Le_Bon">Gustave Le Bon</a>, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Mackay">Charles Mackay</a>); the new paradigm of chaos theory in markets and how fractals and self-similarity create new trading perceptions about pricing and signals (<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beno%C3%AEt_Mandelbrot">Benoit Mandelbrot</a>), and the popularity of Eastern belief systems amongst traders as models for skills acquisition and stress management (notably Western popularisations of Zen and Taoism).&nbsp; Thus an awareness of broader intellectual trends can be useful to unpack the building blocks of a system and for comparative analysis with other theorists and models.<br /><br />Ben Williams' original contribution is to explain how his background as a psychologist informs his trading approach.&nbsp; Chapter 7 outlines a generic model of skills acquisition --- novice, advance beginner, competent, proficient and expert --- that was explored in the book's first edition, and can be integrated with <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agile_software_development">Agile</a>, <a href="http://www.sei.cmu.edu/cmmi/">CMMI</a> and other frameworks for integrating operations and strategy.&nbsp; Williams summarises exercises from <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autogenic_training">autogenic training</a> for stress control in the face of market volatility, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Symbolic_interactionism">symbolic interactionist</a> approaches to align the trader's individual psyche with the market, and cognitive psychology techniques such as cognitive chaining for surfacing deeply held beliefs which lead to self-sabotage and trying to trade out of a losing position without stop losses.&nbsp; The cognitive psychology approach reminds me of physician <a href="http://www.johnclilly.com/">John Lilly</a>'s mid-career work on meta-beliefs and it also parallels recent work in behavioural finance.&nbsp; However, some descriptions --- such as a section on Taoism, Zen and visualising the market as a river which follows the path of least resistance --- seem to be closer to <a href="http://www.livingthefield.com/">New Age beliefs</a> about <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero-point_field">zero point fields</a> which integrate consciousness and matter than the original metaphysical systems.&nbsp; I agree these systems can be applied to training however they need far more grounding than detailed here.<br /><br />From the earlier material on trading approaches, the book's second half develops a trading system to anticipate the price movements in market securities through fractals and self-similarity which occur in volatility.&nbsp; It's always interesting to see how traders justify their approaches and the example trades given.&nbsp; I'm closer to the adaptive markets, event arbitrage and behavioural finance schools of investing and remain to be convinced about the validity of technical analysis that the Williams propose, beyond the obvious role of pattern recognition.&nbsp; Actually perceiving nonlinear dynamics and turbulence can be very different to the language and paradigmatic thought that makes chaos theory a popular explanation.<br /><br />I did experience some perception changes after reading <i>Trading Chaos</i>: (1) charts might be interpreted in a different psychological frame using fractal, self-similarity and volatility metaphors; (2) viewing charts at different timescales (e.g. 1 hour, 1 day, 1 week) might develop the cognition skills to quickly scan signals in a real-time environment; and (3) the juxtaposition of lead and lag signals for trading decisions and triggers has potential, particularly if combined with game theoretic modelling of the market and volatility effects from institutional investors, monetary policy and rational herds.&nbsp; It remains to be seen if these perceptions are sustainable and verifiable in trading conditions, and not just subjective reactions based on past research about chaos theory models.<br /><br />That said, the trading system may also have several criticisms and weaknesses. Finding signals in oscillations and nonlinear dynamics may be difficult in a volatile market.&nbsp; Analysts can be subjective particularly if de-leveraging and other actions by institutional investors are not factored in.&nbsp; Swing traders may be exposed to market sensitivities (aka <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greeks_%28finance%29">the Greeks</a>): <i>Gamma</i> (the rate of change in the underlying security's price), <i>Vega</i> (sensitivity to volatility), <i>Theta</i> (time-decay) and <i>Rho</i> (time-decay of interest rates).&nbsp; Finally, modelling turbulence and uncertainty in a grey or white box system remains a major challenge for financial engineers in new market environments.<br /><br />Threaded throughout <i>Trading Chaos</i> are the mix of useful insights and shibboleths in day trading subcultures.&nbsp; CNBC, investment experts, and the plethora of courses and newsletters thrive on investor insecurity yet create <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Noise_%28economic%29">noise</a> (pp. 34, 42, 56).&nbsp; Trading decisions, trading volume, and speed and type of momentum may be lead indicators of price volatility (p. 126).&nbsp; Broad market knowledge purports to trump expert/specialist understanding (p. 135).&nbsp; Market facts must be distinguished from opinions and beliefs (pp. 8-11).&nbsp; Trader personalities shape risk tolerance, time horizon, the asset allocation process and types of controls (pp. 92, 155), a factor relevant to human resources consultants and the 'transition in' process for trading desks in investment banks.&nbsp; Analysis risk involves emotions and perceptions of a signal (pp. 52-53).&nbsp; The interest in <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fibonacci_number">Fibonacci numbers</a> and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_ratio">Golden ratios</a> are partly because they are iterative, geometric structures applicable to price movement forecasting (pp. 22-23).&nbsp; Grey and white box systems with transparent, programmable rules are preferable to expensive, high-end black box systems which use artificial intelligence and neural net algorithms (pp. 53, 56).&nbsp; A useful bibliography highlights the <a href="http://www.santafe.edu/">Santa Fe Institute</a>'s influence on chaos theory applications in finance and macroeconomics.&nbsp; It suggests this area needs far more research to verify the claims and provisional findings in this book, to separate the gold from the dross.<br /><br />Perhaps the most pivotal insight of <i>Trading Chaos</i> is buried in the text.&nbsp; "We all trade our belief systems.&nbsp; When some of you think about this, it produces a crisis," the authors assert.&nbsp; Now <i>that</i> could be the basis for a 'contrarian' trading system --- probably the one that hedge funds with a short/event arbitrage approach use to scalp day traders in currency/forex and commodities futures markets.<br />]]></description>
            <link>http://alexburns.net/2009/01/trading-chaos.html</link>
            <guid>http://alexburns.net/2009/01/trading-chaos.html</guid>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">Reviews</category>
            
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">agile software development</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">autogenic training</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Benoit Mandelbrot</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">chaos theory</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Charles Mackay</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">CMMI</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">cognitive chaining</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">cognitive psychology</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">commodities futures markets</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">contrarian strategies</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">countertrends</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Fibonacci numbers</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">forex markets</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Gamma</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Golden numbers</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Gustave Le Bon</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">institutional funds</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">John Lilly</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">John Searle</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">learned optimism</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Martin Seligman</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">meta-beliefs</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">neurolinguistic programming</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">NLP</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">path of least resistance</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Rho</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">signals</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">swing trading</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Taoism</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">technical analysis</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Theta</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Trading Chaos</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">value appropriation</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Vega</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Zen</category>
            
            <pubDate>Sun, 04 Jan 2009 13:25:00 +1100</pubDate>
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            <title>33 1/3 Proposal Excerpt on Queensryche&apos;s Operation Mindcrime (1988)</title>
            <description><![CDATA[<font style="font-size: 1em;">My last email for 2008 at 11:56pm was to send a proposal to editor <a href="http://www.blogger.com/profile/07317377313622554323">David Barker</a> for the excellent series <a href="http://www.33third.blogspot.com/">33 1/3</a> which features 25-35k-word analyses of influential and important music albums.&nbsp; <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/33%E2%85%93">33 1/3</a>'s reputation means David and his publishing team will probably be swamped with proposals.&nbsp; On vacation, David is hopefully far away from a computer.</font><br /><br />I've seen proposals from several colleagues, and they have chosen some really intriguing albums that I wouldn't have thought of.&nbsp; So, whichever proposals David and his team choose to go with, you'll see some great 33 1/3 books by new writers in 2010 and 2011.<br /><br />After the jump you can read an excerpt from my proposal, which reveals my album choice: I tried to go with something that is part of the recognised canon (both critical and commercial), which 33 1/3 has not covered before, and importantly, to try and suggest why the book would have significance to a broader readership.&nbsp; Some of the album's themes are hot topics in the media's <a href="http://www.anthonydowns.com/upanddown.htm">issue-attention cycle</a>, and after sending the proposal in, I found David Cole's <a href="http://www.nybooks.com/articles/22232">great article</a> from <i>The New York Review of Books</i>' forthcoming issue.&nbsp; The proposal doesn't hinge on this hot topic, it's just interesting to see changes unfold in the macro environment.<br /><br />Enjoy, and let me know what you think.<br /><br /><br />]]></description>
            <link>http://alexburns.net/2009/01/33-13-proposal-excerpt.html</link>
            <guid>http://alexburns.net/2009/01/33-13-proposal-excerpt.html</guid>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">Counterterrorism</category>
            
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">33 1/3</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">7/7</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Albert Bandura</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Alex Burns</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Barack Obama</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Bernardine Dohrn</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Bill Ayers</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Bill Siegel</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Bunch of Guys</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">David Barker</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">David C. Rapoport</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">David Cole</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">David Grossman</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Elizabeth Kubler-Ross</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Erich Fromm</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Errol Morr</category>
            
            <pubDate>Thu, 01 Jan 2009 14:10:55 +1100</pubDate>
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            <title>Calling All Nations</title>
            <description><![CDATA[Several weeks ago I noticed new graffiti on street signs in the Melbourne suburb <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northcote,_Victoria">Northcote</a> from an unknown group: the Saracen Soldiers.&nbsp; A block away from the most prominent graffiti two houses displayed nationalist flags in their front windows.&nbsp; It could have been coincidence or maybe a signalling game to establish psychological turf.<br /><br />At the time I thought of the ominous graffiti in <a href="http://www.philipkdick.com/">Philip K. Dick</a>'s posthumously published novel <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radio_Free_Albemuth"><i>Radio Free Albemuth</i></a> (1985).&nbsp; The grafiti also reminded me of the wanna-be teenage mercenaries in <a href="http://www.rmit.com.au/browse;ID=8gnl1chdg7qo">Leo Berkeley</a>'s film <a href="http://www.afc.gov.au/filmsandawards/filmdbsearch.aspx?=keyword&amp;view=title&amp;title=HOLIDO"><i>Holidays on the River Yarra</i></a> (1990), who are recruited by a racialist organisation to engage in graffiti, brawls and other low-level politically motivated violence.<br /><br />Two nights ago police <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/national/two-knives-three-alarmed-police-officers-and-a-scared-little-boy-lies-dead-in-seconds-20081212-6xnm.html?page=-1">fatally shot 15-year-old Tyler Cassidy</a> during a confrontation in Northcote's All Nations park.&nbsp; Earlier that evening, Cassidy left home after a family argument then stole two knives from Northcote's Kmart store.&nbsp; Four police were called to arrest Cassidy and Victoria Police will now investigate what happened next.&nbsp; As <a href="http://www.geekgirl.com.au/blog">Rosie X</a> <a href="http://www.geekgirl.com.au/blog/?p=1571">observes</a>, several media outlets speculated about Cassidys membership in the nationalist group <a href="http://www.myspace.com/scssoldiers">Southern Cross Soldiers</a> (SCS) and posed a 'suicide by cop' explanation for Cassidy's death.<br /><br />There are a couple of interesting things to note about blogosphere and media coverage.<br /><br />Journalists described Cassidy's online life as "subterreanean" - a mix of <a href="http://www.mit.edu/%7Esturkle/">Sherry Turkle</a>'s theories about online identity fused with cyberterrorist fears - yet did not link to Cassidy's <a href="http://profile.myspace.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=user.viewProfile&amp;friendID=425089341">MySpace page</a> or mention the SCS sites above.&nbsp; In contrast, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Metzger">Richard Metzger</a> observed to me in 1998 that <a href="http://www.disinfo.com/">Disinformation</a> had a different strategy: it would link to white supremacist groups such as <a href="http://www.aryan-nations.org/">Aryan Nations</a> so that readers would <a href="http://www.disinfo.com/archive/pages/dossier/id7/pg1/index.html">understand their ideological worldview</a>.&nbsp; This got Metzger into trouble with several anti-racialist organisations who confused him with Tom Metzger of <a href="http://www.resist.com/">White Aryan Resistance</a>.<br /><br /><a href="http://slackbastard.anarchobase.com/?p=1485">Anarchist</a> and <a href="http://www.fightdemback.org/2008/12/12/1279/">anti-racialist</a> bloggers knew SCS for months before Cassidy's death as a white supremacist gang or youth network. The <a href="http://profile.myspace.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=user.viewprofile&amp;friendID=241176280">SCS band</a> has copied <a href="http://www.rahowa.com/">Rahowa</a>'s white separatist music as a recruitment strategy.&nbsp; The social network Bebo has pages for <a href="http://www.bebo.com/Profile.jsp?MemberId=5432648979">SCS recruitment </a>and the <a href="http://www.bebo.com/S-C-S-PRIDE-PTBA">SCS band</a>.&nbsp; <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jacques_Ellul">Jacques Ellul</a> would be proud: SCS (and perhaps Cassidy unwittingly) use a blend of Australian historical imagery for in-group identity and <i>integration propaganda</i> ("Aussie pride", the Southern Cross flag, conflation of national identity with ethnicity) with <i>agitation propaganda</i> that is aimed at specific out-group enemies (Italians, Lebanese, anyone who does not meet SCS's criteria for being Australian).<br /><br />Several questions: How many other pages are there?&nbsp; Who has been monitoring them?&nbsp; What if any threat assessments were made?&nbsp; Will anyone get an opportunity to conduct a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sociometry">sociometry</a> analysis of SCS's online social network before the pages are pulled (<a href="http://www.fpri.org/about/people/sageman.html">Marc Sageman</a> established a benchmark with his study of Salafist cells that may have had weak ties to Al Qaeda).<br /><br />Bloggers and journalists alike noted that police might have de-escalated the incident if they were armed with a <a href="http://www.taser.com/">Taser</a> electroshock weapon.&nbsp; The incident captures why there is a tactical role under specific circumstances for law enforcement personnel to use <a href="http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/systems/munitions/non-lethal.htm">non-lethal</a> or <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-lethal_weapon">less-lethal</a> weapons that could have saved Cassidy's life.&nbsp; The four police will likely receive critical incident debriefs and <a href="http://innate-intelligence.com.au/">stress counselling</a>.<br /><br />A few days after Cassidy's death Northcote remains largely subdued apart from occasional police sirens in the distance.&nbsp; In contrast. Greece has faced a week of riots after the <a href="http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/12/13/europe/EU-Greece-Riots.php">shooting of 15-year-old Alexandros Grigoropoulos</a> which <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/world/greek-anger-infects-europe-20081212-6xlj.html">may spread</a> to Europe.&nbsp; As a 'paired study' - SCS's street gang violence, the shootings of Grigoropoulos and Cassidy, and the divergent reactions - illustrate the late sociologist <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Tilly">Charles Tilly</a>'s distinction between individual aggression (Cassidy), brawls (SCS) and scattered attacks (Greece) as different types of collective violence.<br /><br />Tilly's urban sociology in the 1960s foresaw how today's social network sites may be used to coordinate street violence.&nbsp; Perhaps police intelligence analysts would benefit from a few hours with Tilly's masterful study <a href="http://books.google.com/books?id=ycwqpVKx4H4C&amp;dq=politics+of+collective+violence&amp;pg=PP1&amp;ots=MJquDWSxDI&amp;source=bn&amp;sig=LYw5XglZekA_gnSXA5LiAl59d1U&amp;hl=en&amp;sa=X&amp;oi=book_result&amp;resnum=4&amp;ct=result"><i>The Politics of Collective Violence</i></a> (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2003) to pre-empt any SCS revenge attacks for Cassidy's death.&nbsp; SCS might then remain the purveyers of bad hip-hop/rock/metal hybrids (not exactly Australian), poorly designed web sites and street graffiti: the opportunist yet ineffectual extremists that Dick and Berkeley tried to warn us of . . . and that Greece and Europe may face again.<br />]]></description>
            <link>http://alexburns.net/2008/12/calling-all-nations.html</link>
            <guid>http://alexburns.net/2008/12/calling-all-nations.html</guid>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">Counterterrorism</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">Occulture</category>
            
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">agitation propaganda</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Al Qaeda</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Alex Burns</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Alexandros Grigoropoulos</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">All Nations</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">anarchist</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">anti-racialist</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Bebo</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Charles Tilly</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">collective violence</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">critical incident stress</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Disinformation</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Fight Dem Back</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Holidays on the River Yarra</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">integration propaganda</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Jacques Ellul</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Kmart</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Leo Berkeley</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">less-lethal weapons</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">loose tie network</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Marc Sageman</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">MySpace</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">non-lethal weapons</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Northcote</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Philip K Dick</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">politically motivated violence</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">racialist</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Radio Free Albemuth</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Richard Metzger</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Rosie X</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Salafi</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Saracen Soldiers</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">SCS</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Sherry Turkle</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">signalling game</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Southern Cross Soldiers</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">taser</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Taser</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">The Politics of Collective Violence</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Tom Metzger</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Tyler Cassidy</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Victoria Police</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">weak ties</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">White Aryan Resistance</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">white supremacist</category>
            
            <pubDate>Sat, 13 Dec 2008 17:32:21 +1100</pubDate>
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        <item>
            <title>Andrew Denton&apos;s Project Next</title>
            <description><![CDATA[Australian comedian and raconteur <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Denton">Andrew Denton</a> finishes his six-year running interview show <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/tv/enoughrope/">Enough Rope</a>.  Denton's production company <a href="http://www.zof.com.au/">Zapruder's Other Films</a> announces <a href="http://www.projectnext.net.au/">Project Next</a> for 2009: <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2008/12/09/1228584834918.html">finding</a> "the next bunch of original thinkers, movers, mischief-makers and cage-rattlers."<div><div><br /></div><div>Who would you nominate and why?</div></div>]]></description>
            <link>http://alexburns.net/2008/12/andrew-dentons-project-next.html</link>
            <guid>http://alexburns.net/2008/12/andrew-dentons-project-next.html</guid>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">Strategic Foresight</category>
            
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">ABC</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Alex Burns</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Andrew Denton</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Australian Broadcasting Corporation</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Enough Rope</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Project Next</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Zapruder&apos;s Other Films</category>
            
            <pubDate>Tue, 09 Dec 2008 20:58:04 +1100</pubDate>
        </item>
        
        <item>
            <title>Chinese Democracy</title>
            <description><![CDATA[<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_Democracy"><i>Chinese Democracy</i></a> looks set to be the most delayed and expensive album in history: a rumoured $US13 million recording budget, 5 guitarists, 14 studios and a horde of <a href="http://www.digidesign.com/">Pro Tools </a>digital editors.&nbsp; I'm not exactly a <a href="http://web.gunsnroses.com/">Guns n' Roses</a> fan but I bought the album anyway for the CD booklet: a list of production credits for the massively overrun project.&nbsp; For the project's background see Wikipedia's <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Chinese_Democracy"><i>CD</i> history page</a> and Jeff Leeds' article "<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2005/03/06/arts/music/06leed.html">The Most Expensive Album Never Made</a>" (<i>New York Times</i>, 6th March 2005).<br /><br />Interesting that <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Axl_Rose">Axl Rose</a> augmented the <a href="http://www.bestbuy.com/">Best Buy</a>-only release with a MySpace <a href="http://www.myspace.com/gunsnroses">streaming strategy</a> and that Amazon.com's top search today for "Chinese Democracy" is <a href="http://www.metallica.com/">Metallica</a>'s <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_Magnetic"><i>Death Magnetic</i></a> (Elektra, 2008) . . . Rose's <i>CD</i> is <i>ninth</i> on the search algorithm's list.<br /><br />I'm saving most of my thoughts on <i>Chinese Democracy</i> for a journal article.&nbsp; <br /><br />Former Gn'R co-founder <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slash_%28musician%29">Slash</a> in his autobiography <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Slash/dp/0061351431/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1?ie=UTF8&amp;s=books&amp;qid=1228196555&amp;sr=8-1"><i>Slash</i></a> (HarperEntertainment, New York, 2007), co-written with Anthony Bozza, has a prescient and interesting anecdote (p. 371) on Rose's decision to use Pro Tools in the recording studio:<br /><br /><blockquote>There were rows and rows
of Pro Tools servers and gear.&nbsp; Which was a clear indication that Axl
and I had very different ideas of how to do this record.&nbsp; I was open to
using Pro Tools, to trying new things--but everyone had to be on the
same page and in the same room to explore new ideas.&nbsp; The band managed
to do a little bit of jamming and come up with some things.&nbsp; A couple
of the ideas I had come up with Axl apparently liked and they were
recorded onto Pro Tools and stored for him to work on later.<br /><br />We'd show up at different times every evening, but by eight p.m.
generally everyone in the band would be there.&nbsp; Then we'd wait for Axl,
who, when he did come, arrived much, much later.&nbsp; That was the norm; it
was a dark, miserable atmosphere that lacked direction of any kind.&nbsp; I
hung out for a bit; but after a few days I chose to spend my evenings
at the strip bar around the corner, with orders for the engineers to
call me if Axl decided to arrive.</blockquote>
 ]]></description>
            <link>http://alexburns.net/2008/12/chinese-democracy.html</link>
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                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">Reviews</category>
            
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Alex Burns</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Amazon.com</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Anthony Bozza</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Axl Rose</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Best Buy</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Chinese Democracy</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Death Magnetic</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">DigiDesign. Metallica</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Elektra</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Gn&apos;R</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Jeff Leeds</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">MySpace</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">New York Times</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Pro Tools</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">search engine optimisation</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">SEO</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Slash</category>
            
            <pubDate>Tue, 02 Dec 2008 19:26:51 +1100</pubDate>
        </item>
        
        <item>
            <title>Two Examples of Waking Sleep</title>
            <description><![CDATA[The Graeco-Russian philosopher <a href="http://www.gurdjieff.org/">George Gurdjieff</a> argued in the early 20th century that humanity lives much of its life in a form of waking sleep.&nbsp; This all sounds very theoretical --- Gurdjieff was the subject of <a href="http://www.disinfo.com/archive/pages/dossier/id132/pg1/index.html">one of my first four dossiers</a> in 1998 for <a href="http://www.disinfo.com/">Disinformation</a> and a 2001 <a href="http://www.disinfo.com/archive/pages/article/id1762/pg1/index.html">undergraduate essay</a> --- but the right circumstances can drive his point home with clarity.<br /><br />This past weekend provides two examples apart from the <a href="http://alexburns.net/2008/12/mumbai-siege-hunt.html">Mumbai siege</a>.&nbsp; In the first, Jdimytai Damour an agency temp was trampled to death at a Wal-Mart sale in Long Island, New York, on Black Friday, 28th November 2008.&nbsp; Associated Press <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/11/28/AR2008112801338.html">coverage</a> quotes Kimberly Cribbs that customers acted like "savages".&nbsp; <i>The New York Times</i> blamed the media for <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/01/business/media/01carr.html">creating unrealistic expectations</a> about Black Friday sale bargains: the catalyst for a mania.&nbsp; In the second, Sydney's Glebe Coroner's Court has held an inquest into Emma Hansen's death: Hansen was a pedestrian <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/national/im-a-murderer-learner-drivers-scream-at-pedestrian-carnage-20081201-6oeu.html">accidentally killed</a> in 2007 by learner driver Rose Deng, who is still permitted to drive by Australian authorities.&nbsp; Both incidents illustrate on a micro-scale Gurdjieff's Law of Accident or Law of Hazard ("when an event happens without the lines of the events we observe").<br /><br />For two overviews of Gurdjieff's philosophy see <a href="http://innerchristianity.com/">Richard Smoley</a>'s introduction to <a href="http://www.lumen.org/"><i>Gnosis</i></a> Magazine's special issue <a href="http://www.lumen.org/intros/intro20.html">here</a> and <a href="http://www.darkecho.com/JohnShirley.html">John Shirley</a>'s essay <a href="http://www.darkecho.com/JohnShirley/jsgurd.html">The Shadows of Ideas</a>.&nbsp; I also recommend Shirley's book <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Gurdjieff-John-Shirley/dp/1585422878/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&amp;s=books&amp;qid=1228137057&amp;sr=8-1"><i>Gurdjieff: An Introduction to His Ideas</i></a> (Tarcher, San Francisco, 2004) and his DVD commentary as co-scriptwriter for Alex Proyas' dark gothic masterpiece <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Crow-Miramax-Dimension-Collectors/dp/B000059XUO/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1?ie=UTF8&amp;s=dvd&amp;qid=1228137134&amp;sr=8-1"><i>The Crow</i></a> (1994), infamous for another Law of Accident case: <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brandon_Lee">Brandon Lee</a>'s accidental death during a film stunt.<br />]]></description>
            <link>http://alexburns.net/2008/12/two-examples-of-waking-sleep.html</link>
            <guid>http://alexburns.net/2008/12/two-examples-of-waking-sleep.html</guid>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">Occulture</category>
            
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Alex Burns</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Alex Proyas</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Brandon Lee</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Disinformation</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Emma Hansen</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">George Gurdjieff</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Glebe Coroner&apos;s Court</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Gnosis Magazine</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Jdimytai Damour</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">John Shirley</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Law of Accident</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Law of Hazard</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Long Island</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Mumbai</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Richard Smoley</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Robert Greenwald</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Rose Deng</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">The Crow</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Wal-Mart</category>
            
            <pubDate>Mon, 01 Dec 2008 23:33:21 +1100</pubDate>
        </item>
        
        <item>
            <title>Mumbai Siege: The Hunt for the Perpetrators</title>
            <description><![CDATA[Counterterrorism analysts search for answers as the official death toll from Mumbai's siege <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/01/world/asia/01mumbai.html">rises to 183 people</a>.&nbsp; We now enter <a href="http://www.merrill.umd.edu/directory/details.cfm?id=54">Susan Moeller</a>'s second stage of post-terrorist attacks: the hunt for the perpetrators and seeking justice.&nbsp; See my October 2001 analysis <a href="http://www.disinfo.com/archive/pages/article/id1591/pg1/index.html">here</a> on the September 11 aftermath and <a href="http://www.disinfo.com/archive/pages/article/id1600/pg1/index.html">Henry Rollins' reaction</a> in New York City.<br /><br /><i>Slate</i>'s Anne Applebaum <a href="http://www.slate.com/id/2205685/">observes</a> that we don't yet know much about the group that carried out the attacks.&nbsp; Applebaum's analysis echoes <a href="http://www.laqueur.net/">Walter Laqueur</a>'s 'new terrorism' thesis in the mid-to-late 1990s: attempts at mass casualty attacks, tactics from the guerrilla and insurgency playbook, an ideological mix, and groups that either do not claim credit or who are not on the radar of counterterrorism analysts.&nbsp; Applebaum captures <a href="http://www.rand.org/multi/ctrmp/staff/treverton.html">Gregory Treverton</a>'s distinction between solvable 'puzzles' and potentially unsolvable 'mysteries' in intelligence analysis.<br /><br />"The particulars of the attacking group are unknown; the
political-military equation from which the group has almost certainly
arisen is not," <a href="http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/stevecoll/2008/11/decoding-mumbai.html">notes</a> <i>The New Yorker</i>'s Steve Coll.&nbsp; The <i>most plausible</i> hypotheses for Coll and other counterterrorism experts are: (1) Pakistan's intelligence services may have funded the group in a clandestine/proxy war with India; or (2) the group emerged as an autonomous cell that was ideologically motivated by the clandestine/proxy war.&nbsp; Coll explains why at this early stage the Mumbai siege is closer to Treverton's 'mysteries':<br /><br /><blockquote>If past investigations into such groups prove to be any guide, it may
be difficult to find clear-cut evidence of direct involvement by
Pakistani intelligence or army personnel. This is because Pakistan,
knowing the stakes of getting caught red-handed, has increasingly
pursued its clandestine proxy war against India in Kashmir and on the
Indian mainland through layers and layers of self-managing and
non-state groups. The Pakistani government and its domestic Islamist
proxies, including nominally peaceful charities based in Pakistan but
with operations in Kashmir, almost certainly pass through money and
weapons on a large scale. They do so, however, in such a way that is
very difficult to trace these supplies back to the government.<br /><br /></blockquote>Applebaum highlights the epistemological challenges that counterterrorism analysts face; Coll offers some guidance on how to conduct an investigation on the basis of <a href="http://www.austhink.org/monk/index.htm">'contingent' beliefs</a> and <a href="https://www.cia.gov/library/kent-center-occasional-papers/index.html">alternative hypotheses</a>.<br /><br />Pakistan's government <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/30/world/asia/30pstan.html?ref=world">denies any role</a>
in the Mumbai attacks.&nbsp; Perhaps forensic analysis of crime scene
evidence will provide answers and shift the current speculation from
Treverton's 'mystery' to 'puzzle'.&nbsp; Or maybe not.<br /><br />The next day Coll <a href="http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/stevecoll/2008/12/lashkaretaiba.html">analyses</a> India's claim that the group <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lashkar-e-Toiba">Lashkar-e-Taiba</a> was behind the Mumbai attack.<br />]]></description>
            <link>http://alexburns.net/2008/12/mumbai-siege-hunt.html</link>
            <guid>http://alexburns.net/2008/12/mumbai-siege-hunt.html</guid>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">Counterterrorism</category>
            
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Alex Burns</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">alternative hypotheses</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Anne Applebaum</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">clandestine war</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">contingent beliefs</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">counterterrorism</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">CTS</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Deccan Mujaheddin</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Gregory Treverton</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Henry Rollins</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">India</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Kashmir</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Lashkar-e-Taiba</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Mumbai</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">new terrorism</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Pakistan</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">proxy war</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Slate</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Steve Coll</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">The New Yorker</category>
            
            <pubDate>Mon, 01 Dec 2008 19:20:22 +1100</pubDate>
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        <item>
            <title>Polly Borland&apos;s Untitled III</title>
            <description><![CDATA[A few months ago publisher Ashley Crawford (of <i>21C</i> and <i>World Art</i> fame) asked me to contribute to a <a href="http://www.acp.org.au/photofile/"><i>Photofile</i> Magazine</a> roundtable about a mysterious bunny image.&nbsp; I sent Ash a brief piece with in-joke references to the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Discordianism">Discordianism</a> movement, the horror author <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H._P._Lovecraft">H.P. Lovecraft</a>, Richard Adams' novel <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Watership_Down"><i>Watership Down</i></a>, intelligent design, and the 1977 hoax <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alternative_3">Alternative 3</a> (in <i>Photofile</i> #84, Summer 2008, p. 60).&nbsp; It was a lot of fun.&nbsp; The image turned out to be <a href="http://www.pollyborland.com/">Polly Borland</a>'s <i>Untitled III</i> (2004-04), and private collector David Walsh now <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2008/11/25/1227491547052.html">curates a billboard version</a> in Melbourne, Australia.<br />]]></description>
            <link>http://alexburns.net/2008/11/polly-borlands-untitled-iii.html</link>
            <guid>http://alexburns.net/2008/11/polly-borlands-untitled-iii.html</guid>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">Occulture</category>
            
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">21C</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Alex Burns</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Alternative 3</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Ashley Crawford</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">David Walsh</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Discordianism</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">H.P. Lovecraft</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">intelligent design</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Photofile</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Polly Borland</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Untitled III</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Watership Down</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">World Art</category>
            
            <pubDate>Sun, 30 Nov 2008 16:14:33 +1100</pubDate>
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        <item>
            <title>15 Years In The Wilderness</title>
            <description><![CDATA[Actor <a href="http://www.mickeyrourkeonline.com/">Mickey Rourke</a> is an Oscar favourite for his <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Method_acting">Method</a> role in <a href="http://www.darrenaronofsky.com/">Darren Aronofsky</a>'s <span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: italic;"><a href="http://www.thewrestlermovie.com/">The Wrestler</a></span> (2008).  Press coverage focuses on Rourke's rise-and-fall: how his bad boy image led to onset difficulties in the late 1980s, a bitter breakup with model Carre Otis, and living humiliated, destitute and largely forgotten by the mid-1990s.  Arrogance, self-loathing, and rejecting offers for roles in later blockbusters all played a part in Rourke's banishment to straight-to-video films.  He has waited 15 years in the wilderness before a career turnaround.<div><br /></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: italic;">The Guardian</span>'s Carole Cadwalladr captures this destructive career arc in a <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/film/2008/nov/23/mickey-rourke-interview">poignant interview</a> in which Rourke examines his poor decisions and their impact.  It's as if Marlon Brando had coauthored Sidney Finkelstein's study <span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: italic;"><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Why-Smart-Executives-Fail-Mistakes/dp/1591840104">Why Executives Fail</a></span> (Portfolio, New York, 2003): see Finkelstein's <a href="http://mba.tuck.dartmouth.edu/pages/faculty/syd.finkelstein/causes.html">homepage</a>, the book's <a href="http://www.whysmartexecutivesfail.com/">website</a>, and a <a href="http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=8562160660287197858">video lecture</a>.  Rourke admits to many of the communication problems, career-blocking moves and blow-ups that Allen N. Weiner identifies in his book <span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: italic;"><a href="http://www.amazon.com/So-Smart-But-Intelligent-Credibility/dp/0787985740">So Smart But . . .</a></span> (Jossey-Bass, San Francisco, 2006).</div><div><br /></div><div>I reflected on Cadwalladr's profile for a week: Rourke has insights about why star performers can blow-up.  And then Pat Jordan of <span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: italic;">The New York Times</span> <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/30/magazine/30rourke-t.html">decided to do some fact-checking</a> with others after an interview with Rourke.  What emerges from Jordan's investigation is a far more nuanced view of Rourke's anecdotes and self-narratives to Cadwalladr and other journalists.  "He has spent his entire adult life playing not fictional characters but an idealized delusional fantasy of himself," Jordan observes.  Maybe so, but Cadwalladr and Jordan have both written detailed and emotive portraits of Rourke who now could have a fourth act: following Finkelstein and Weiner on the corporate seminar circuit on how <span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: italic;">not</span> to make decisions that destroy careers and reputations.<br /></div>]]></description>
            <link>http://alexburns.net/2008/11/15-years-in-the-wilderness.html</link>
            <guid>http://alexburns.net/2008/11/15-years-in-the-wilderness.html</guid>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">Reviews</category>
            
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Alex Burns</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">blow-ups</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">career turnarounds</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">career-blocking moves</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Carole Cadwalladr</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Carre Otis</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">communication problems</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Darren Aronofsky</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Marlon Brando</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Method acting</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Mickey Rourke</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Oscar</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Pat Jordan</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Sidney Finkelstein</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Why Executives Fail</category>
            
            <pubDate>Sun, 30 Nov 2008 00:24:33 +1100</pubDate>
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        <item>
            <title>Neil Chenoweth&apos;s 2008 Walkley Award for Business Journalism</title>
            <description><![CDATA[Congratulations to forensic journalist <a href="http://www.linkedin.com/in/neilchenoweth">Neil Chenoweth</a> and his colleagues on their 2008 <a href="http://www.walkleys.com/">Walkley Award</a> for Business Journalism: an investigation into the failed stockbrokers <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opes_Prime">Opes Prime</a>.<br /><br />I interviewed Chenoweth in 2002 for a Masters <a href="http://www.alexburns.net/Files/The%20Art%20of%20Mega-Deals.pdf">paper</a> on Rupert Murdoch's negotiation strategies.&nbsp; During our talk, Chenoweth gave me a couple of "aha!" moments on how to conduct a forensic journalism investigation, Murdoch's use of <a href="http://www.gametheory.net/">game theory</a> to understand other parties in a deal, and the murky underworld of cable and satellite television.<br /><br />Chenoweth writes regularly for the <a href="http://afr.com/"><i>Australian Financial Review</i></a>, an Antipodean equivalent of the pre-Murdoch <a href="http://online.wsj.com/"><i>Wall Street Journal</i></a>.&nbsp; Chenoweth's <i>Virtual Murdoch: Reality Wars on the Information Superhighway</i> (Secker &amp; Warburg, London, 2001), published in the US with new material as <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Rupert-Murdoch/dp/B000FC1K9I/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&amp;s=books&amp;qid=1227789527&amp;sr=8-2"><i>Rupert Murdoch</i></a> (Random House, New York, 2004) chronicles his decade-long investigation into the world's most powerful media mogul.&nbsp; Read a chapter-by-chapter summary <a href="http://www.disinfo.com/archive/pages/article/id1410/pg1/index.html">here</a>.&nbsp; Chenoweth's book <i>Packer's Lunch</i> (Random House, Sydney, 2006), reviewed <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/news/book-reviews/packers-lunch/2006/05/09/1146940523377.html">here</a>, also has substantial research on Sydney's corporate dealmakers in the 1990s and their Swiss bank accounts.<br />]]></description>
            <link>http://alexburns.net/2008/11/neil-chenoweths-2008-walkley-a.html</link>
            <guid>http://alexburns.net/2008/11/neil-chenoweths-2008-walkley-a.html</guid>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">M&amp;A</category>
            
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Alex Burns</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">forensic journalism</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">game theory</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Neil Chenoweth</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Opes Prime</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Packer&apos;s Lunch</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Rupert Murdoch</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Virtual Murdoch</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Walkey Awards 2008</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Wall Street Journal</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">WSJ</category>
            
            <pubDate>Thu, 27 Nov 2008 23:22:50 +1100</pubDate>
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        <item>
            <title>A Challenging Conversation on Integral Futures</title>
            <description><![CDATA[The <a href="http://www.jfs.tku.edu.tw/"><i>Journal of Futures Studies</i></a> (Tamkang University, Taiwan) has <a href="http://www.jfs.tku.edu.tw/13-2/E01.pdf">published a 'trialogue'</a> on <a href="http://foresightinternational.com.au/catalogue/resources/Integral_Futures.pdf">Integral Futures</a> between colleagues <a href="http://www.emergence.net.au/people/josh_floyd.html">Josh Floyd</a>, <a href="http://www.actionforesight.net/">Jose Ramos</a> and myself.<br /><br />The trialogue is an exploratory method that the late ethnobotanist <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terence_McKenna">Terence McKenna</a> used at the <a href="http://www.esalen.org/">Esalen Institute</a> and <a href="http://www.eomega.org/">Omega Institute</a> to cocreate new knowledge informed by interdisciplinary expertise.&nbsp; McKenna's trialogues featured mathematician <a href="http://www.ralph-abraham.org/">Ralph Abraham</a> and biologist <a href="http://www.sheldrake.org/">Rupert Sheldrake</a>.&nbsp; More recently, <a href="http://www.techgnosis.com/">Erik Davis</a> and <a href="http://www.rushkoff.com/">Douglas Rushkoff</a> have continued the tradition.&nbsp; The theoretical physicist <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Bohm">David Bohm</a> developed a similar method for dialogue and group work.<br /><br />Floyd, Ramos and I discussed this approach in February-April 2006 after taking three different
iterations of Advanced Professional Praxis a 'capstone' project unit in
Swinburne University's <a href="http://www.swinburne.edu.au/business/agse/strategic_foresight_program.htm?mi=100&amp;id=5235">Strategic Foresight</a> program.&nbsp; <a href="http://www.foresightinternational.com.au/">Richard Slaughter</a> provided a focal point as he assembled papers for a special issue of the journal <a href="http://www.elsevier.com/locate/futures"><i>Futures</i></a> (Elsevier) on Integral Futures Methodologies (November, 2007).&nbsp; For over a decade, Slaughter had synthesised a Futures knowledge base of new frameworks, methodologies and visions.&nbsp; Informed by <a href="http://www.kenwilber.com/">Ken Wilber</a>'s <a href="http://www.integralinstitute.org/">Integral vision</a>, Slaughter proposed Integral Futures as a "broader and deeper" horizon for Futures work.&nbsp; Wilber and Slaughter galvanised a new cohort of practitioners to develop new Integral Futures methodologies.&nbsp; Yet new creative horizons may create new problems.<br /><br />How can Integral Futures practitioners be ethically informed about their new methods?&nbsp; Our trialogue proposes Embodied Foresight as one possible way to achieve this: the cultivation of ethical sensitivity, situation awareness about the Teacher-Student relationship and pedagogical barriers, and self-reflection on the transformative potential of initiatory knowledge and wisdom traditions.&nbsp; Or, "foresight-in-context" may anticipate and prevent hazards that might have unforeseen consequences.<br /><br />The trialogue creates a space for each of us to bring theoretical frameworks and practitioner reflections into the discussion.&nbsp; Floyd brings expertise in Zen Buddhism, cognitive science and phenomenology, and a familiarity with Wilber and <a href="http://individual.utoronto.ca/evant/">Evan Thompson</a>'s research.&nbsp; Ramos brings transcultural experiences in Futures, action research, and postcolonial insights on "model monopolies".&nbsp; I added some insights from mid-1990s exploration of the <a href="http://www.gurdjieff.org/">Gurdjieff Work</a> and the <a href="http://www.xeper.org/">Temple of Set</a>, and experiences during Masters studies, publishing and research projects.<br /><br />From our trialogue's conclusion:<br /><br /><blockquote>Embodied Foresight offers some emergent solutions for the individual practitioner to the challenges and difficulties of Integral Futures practice. These reflexive 'problems' are part of diffusion, initiation and knowledge transfer in many wisdom traditions. Our 'trialogue' has raised several 'reflexive' problems-from Teacher-Student relationships and pedagogical barriers to the archetypal dangers of <i>Phobos</i> and<i> Thanatos</i>-that each of us has personally experienced within the Futures Studies community and in other initiatory and wisdom traditions.<br /></blockquote>]]></description>
            <link>http://alexburns.net/2008/11/a-challenging-conversation-on.html</link>
            <guid>http://alexburns.net/2008/11/a-challenging-conversation-on.html</guid>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">Strategic Foresight</category>
            
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Advaxis</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Chris Stewart</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">cocreation</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">David Bohm</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Douglas Rushkoff</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Embodied Foresight</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Erik Davis</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Esalen Institute</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Evan Thompson</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Futures</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Gurdjieff Work</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">initiatory knowledge</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Integral Futures</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">JFS</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Jose Ramos</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Josh Floyd</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Journal of Futures Studies</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Ken Wilber</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">methodology development</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">model monopolies</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">nced Professional PraAlex Burns</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Omega Institute</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">postcolonial</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">practitioner development</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Ralph Abraham</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Richard Slaughter</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Rupert Sheldrake</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">shadow work</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Tamkang University</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Temple of Set</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Terence McKenna</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Trialogues</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">wisdom tradition</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">wisdom traditions</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Zen Buddhism</category>
            
            <pubDate>Tue, 25 Nov 2008 19:23:27 +1100</pubDate>
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        <item>
            <title>CPRF08 Paper: Disruptive Innovation, Radiohead &amp; Nine Inch Nails</title>
            <description><![CDATA[I recently blogged about a presentation  the 2008 <a href="http://www.networkinsight.org/events/cprf08.html/group/6">Communications Policy Research Forum</a> in Sydney on <a href="http://www.claytonchristensen.com/">disruptive innovation</a> in the music industry.<br /><br />You can now download an Adobe PDF version of the PowerPoint slides <a href="http://www.alexburns.net/Files/CPRF08AlexBurns.pdf">here</a>.<br /><br />The refereed paper has been published in the <a href="http://www.networkinsight.org/verve/_resources/Record_CPRF08.pdf"><i>Proceedings of the Communications Policy Research Forum 2008</i></a> (pp. 155-175 or PDF file pp. 179-199).&nbsp; You can also download a local copy of the paper <a href="http://www.alexburns.net/Files/DisruptiveRadioheadNIN%20-%20Alex%20Burns.pdf">here</a>.<br /><br />The paper's case study examines why <a href="http://www.radiohead.com/">Radiohead</a> and <a href="http://www.nin.com/">Nine Inch Nails</a> released their new albums as digital downloads.&nbsp; I suggest a major reason why, and one that was overlooked by <a href="http://www.oreillynet.com/pub/a/oreilly/tim/news/2005/09/30/what-is-web-20.html">Web 2.0 pundits</a>, is that each artist was in the 'label shopping phase' of a new contract and defected after negotiation problems with their major labels.&nbsp; This fits a pattern in mergers and acquisitions: the major labels lost artists due to integration problems in a merger or acquisition.&nbsp; <a href="http://www.terrafirma.com/">Terra Firma Capital Partners</a> has since partially confirmed this hypothesis: the private equity firm endures <a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/fe9b614c-a22c-11dd-a32f-000077b07658.html">more post-acquisition integration problems</a> with EMI and is <a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/fe9b614c-a22c-11dd-a32f-000077b07658.html">fighting against government regulation</a> of Great Britain's financial services sector. <br /><br />The paper's data appendices contrast the artists' strategies with signficant events and innovations in music industry contracts, conglomerate mergers and deal structures.&nbsp; Somehow I missed <a href="http://www.u2.com/">U2</a>'s March 2008 deal with <a href="http://www.billboard.com/bbcom/news/article_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1003782687">Live Nation</a>: I found out about it in an October 2008 <a href="http://www.billboard.com/bbcom/news/article_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1003875614">announcement</a>.&nbsp; <a href="http://www.gunsnroses.com/">Guns n' Roses</a> also finally released <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_Democracy"><i>Chinese Democracy</i></a> (MySpace <a href="http://www.myspace.com/gunsnroses">audio stream</a>): a new album that has taken 15 years, a rumoured US$14 million budget and 14 recording studios in New York, Los Angeles, Las Vegas and London.&nbsp; I may write a paper on it . . .<br />]]></description>
            <link>http://alexburns.net/2008/11/cprf08-paper-disruptive-innova.html</link>
            <guid>http://alexburns.net/2008/11/cprf08-paper-disruptive-innova.html</guid>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">Corporate Finance</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">Innovation</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">M&amp;A</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">Strategic Foresight</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">Strategic Intelligence</category>
            
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Alex Burns</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Chinese Democracy</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Chris Anderson</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Clayton Christensen</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">CPRF08</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Cristina Abad</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">deal structures</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Disinformation</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">disruptive information revelation</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">disruptive innovation</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">disruptive innovation markets</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">EMI</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Franco Papandrea</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">freeconomics</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Guns n&apos; Roses</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">In Rainbows</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Live Nation</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Mark Armstrong</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">MySpace</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Nine Inch Nails</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">post-merger integration</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Radiohead</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Scott Anthony</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Terra Firma Capital Partners</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">The Slip</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">UMG</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Web 2.0</category>
            
            <pubDate>Fri, 21 Nov 2008 17:27:15 +1100</pubDate>
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        <item>
            <title>Efficiency Perils in Global Food Markets</title>
            <description><![CDATA[<i>The New Yorker</i>'s <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Surowiecki">James Surowiecki</a> provides an overview of <a href="http://www.newyorker.com/talk/financial/2008/11/24/081124ta_talk_surowiecki">volatility</a> in the global food market.&nbsp; Three insights emerge for me:<br /><br />(1) Differences between policymakers and food security experts at the problem diagnosis stage may have complicated the implementation of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Structural_adjustment">structural adjustment</a> programs.&nbsp; Food security poses solutions that are potentially counterintuitive to policymakers: the former will value food stocks to ensure stability in sovereign nation-state the international political economy whereas the latter may prioritise food flows for international trade, to hedge commodities and currency risks.&nbsp; <a href="http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/jamessurowiecki/?xrail">Surowiecki</a> explores a contemporary scenario of potential market failure due to demand-supply, pricing and other distortions with the allocation mechanisms.<br /><br />(2) <a href="mailto:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Ricardo">David Ricardo</a>'s theory of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparative_advantage">comparative advantage</a> - in which each nation specialises in the efficient production of goods and services to trade with others for maximum payoff - may not be scalable in its simple form to a complex, interconnected and global system.&nbsp; Surowiecki's analysis suggests tha the over-reliance on a few countries for specific foods will undermine the global system's resilience and capacity to cope with exogenous shocks and volatility.<br /><br />(3) Paramaters for investor and market models of the global food market using <a href="http://www.vensim.com/">Vensim</a> simulation software: production supply, demand volatility, pricing, subsidies/tariffs, stocks and flows, and leverage points.&nbsp; Undertake different short- and long-run simulations noting the role of capacities, dynamics and thresholds, and the impacts of exogenous shocks and volatility.<br />]]></description>
            <link>http://alexburns.net/2008/11/efficiency-perils-in-global-fo.html</link>
            <guid>http://alexburns.net/2008/11/efficiency-perils-in-global-fo.html</guid>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">Strategic Foresight</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">Strategic Intelligence</category>
            
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Alex Burns</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">allocation mechanisms</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">comparative advantage</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">David Ricardo</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">demand-supply</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">food security</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">global food markets</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">international political economy</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">international trade</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">James Surowiecki</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">market failure</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">market models</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">pricing</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">simulation software</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">stocks and flows</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">structural adjustment program</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Vensim</category>
            
            <pubDate>Wed, 19 Nov 2008 18:26:00 +1100</pubDate>
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        <item>
            <title>Value Chain 2.0 Precursors</title>
            <description><![CDATA[Paul Roberts has an <a href="http://conem.wordpress.com/2008/11/16/value-chain-20/">interesting post on Value Chain 2.0</a>: the use of Web 2.0 methodologies and platforms in value chain analysis, process redesign and supply chain management (SCM).<br /><br />Value Chain 2.0 transformations actually predate Tim O'Reilly's <a href="http://www.oreillynet.com/pub/a/oreilly/tim/news/2005/09/30/what-is-web-20.html">Web 2.0 term</a> but this is largely hidden from non-domain experts.&nbsp; One reason why is the historical influence of engineering and mechanistic models on public perceptions of SCM.&nbsp; Logistics, operations and industrial economics all moulded <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Porter">Michael Porter</a>'s <a href="http://www.valuebasedmanagement.net/methods_porter_value_chain.html">value chain model</a>.&nbsp; Mainframe interfaces shaped <a href="http://www.sap.com/">SAP</a>'s materials management and enterprise resource planning systems.&nbsp; A climate of downsizing and recessions influenced how business leaders applied <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Hammer">Michael Hammer</a> and <a href="http://www.jimchampy.com/">James Champy</a>'s <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Business_process_reengineering">business process reengineering</a>.&nbsp; SCM has evolved yet the public perceptions remain.<br /><br />There's a broader context and history to Value Chain 2.0 that some Web 2.0 descriptions may not do justice to.&nbsp; Some of the more well-known examples: <a href="http://web.mit.edu/evhippel/www/index.html">Eric von Hippel</a> cast the die in <a href="http://web.mit.edu/evhippel/www/sources.htm"><i>The Sources of Innovation</i></a> (New York: Oxford University Press, 1988) about <a href="http://www.3m.com/">3M</a>'s ideation, innovation and new product development processes; von Hippel elaborated on discussions which occurred since the mid-1970s.&nbsp; SAP and other ERP vendors have had end-user case studies in conferences for over a decade.&nbsp; <a href="http://www.dell.com/">Dell</a>'s dotcom era choiceboard for consumers to customise their orders meant more efficient throughput and higher inventory turnover.&nbsp; <a href="http://www.lego.com/">Lego Mindstorms</a> builds on decades of insights in constructivist learning and robotics.&nbsp; <a href="http://www.pg.com/">Procter &amp; Gamble</a>'s <a href="http://www.pgconnectdevelop.com/">Connect + Develop</a> initiative reflects P&amp;G's expertise in brand development and consumer goods marketing, and leverages decade-long trends in knowledge management and information systems.&nbsp; This suggests a deep history or a path dependence to many 'new new' Web 2.0 cases and trends.<br /><br />Perhaps Value Chain 2.0's initial contributions are to make these initiatives more explicit to non-domain experts and to provide an accessible interface for consumers.<br /> ]]></description>
            <link>http://alexburns.net/2008/11/value-chain-20-precursors.html</link>
            <guid>http://alexburns.net/2008/11/value-chain-20-precursors.html</guid>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">Innovation</category>
            
            
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                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Alex Burns</category>
            
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                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">business process management</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">business process reengineering</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">choiceboard</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">conem</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Connect + Develop</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">constructivist learning</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">deep history</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Dell</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">domain expertise</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">enterprise resource planning</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Eric von Hippel</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">ERP</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">ideation</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">industrial economics</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">information systems</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">innovation</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">IS</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">knowledge management</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Lego Mindstorms</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">logistics</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">materials management</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Michael Porter</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">new product development</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">operations</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">P&amp;G</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">path dependence</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Paul Roberts</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">process management</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Procter &amp; Gamble</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">robotics</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Ruby on Rails</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">SAP AG</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">SAP R/3</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">SCM</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">supply chain management</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">The Sources of Innovation</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Tim O&apos;Reilly</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Value Chain 2.0</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Web 2.0</category>
            
            <pubDate>Wed, 19 Nov 2008 13:10:24 +1100</pubDate>
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